Analysis by British Pearl, revealed London’s commuter belt was braced to feel the full brunt of a ‘no-deal’ sledgehammer because it was home to some of the UK’s most polarised property markets.
Places like Stevenage had experienced price gaps between flats and houses which were among the greatest in Britain, the research showed. Indeed, the Hertfordshire town had seen the disparity between flats and houses grow from 68% to 197% in five years.
Watford and Hastings, which are in commutable distance from the capital, ranked second and third on the list of places at risk from a no-deal scenario.
The warning comes in the wake of comments from the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, who said a chaotic withdrawal from the EU could lead – in the worst case scenario – to house prices nosediving by as much as 33%.
James Newbery, investment manager at British Pearl, said: “Parts of the UK property market have made considerable gains and the relative value of homes in different price bands now poses a serious risk to homeowners and investors in the run-up to March 2019.
“The fallout from no-deal is most likely to be felt hardest in the capital’s commuter belt, where markets have moved too far and too fast. That is bad news for both ordinary investors and homeowners, particularly those who have borrowed to make their purchase.
“However, the study also shows being diligent about the area you buy in can help you avoid these increased risks, with huge variations being seen in this polarisation measure across the country.”
UK’s Top 10 Most Polarised Towns/Cities (data from British Pearl)
| Ranking | Town/City | Flat vs House Price Gap 2018 | Change in Price Gap (5 yrs) |
| 1 | Stevenage | 197.0% | 68.2% |
| 2 | Watford | 201.4% | 53.2% |
| 3 | Hastings | 184.7% | 63.1% |
| 4 | Rugby | 200.3% | 45.8% |
| 5 | Milton Keynes | 184.3% | 52.8% |
| 6 | Luton | 176.2% | 64.3% |
| 7 | Crawley | 188.8% | 48.1% |
| 8 | Bedford | 178.6% | 58.8% |
| 9 | Maidstone | 176.9% | 59.5% |
| 10 | Northampton | 176.9% | 54.4% |
