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Housing market expected to pick up following Brexit wobble

by Stephen Little
August 11, 2016
Seasonal house price dip spells steeper rise next year, warns Rightmove
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houseprices1Despite the UK housing market posting its slowest growth in the past three years in July, it is predicted to pick up in the next 12 months, according to surveyors.

The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors said 5% more estate agents nationally saw a rise rather than a fall in prices during July.

RICS noted that views varied markedly between agents, with a large portion saying that activity had returned to normal after an “initial wobble”, while others felt Brexit had only resulted in a limited impact.

House sales continued to fall, with 34% of respondents across the UK reporting a fall in transactions.

RICS said this was largely due to the 3% increase in stamp duty in April for buy-to-let and second homes.

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Near term price expectations across the UK were negative for the third month in a row, with 12% of agents predicting a decline in house prices over the next three months.

However, respondents are more optimistic about the next 12 months. The net balance of agents expecting prices to increase in the year ahead increased from zero in June to 23% in July.

For the second month running London and East Anglia are the only areas in which prices are expected to fall over the year ahead.

Prices are predicted to rise by 3% nationally and 4% in London over the next five years.

Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at RICS, said: “The housing market is currently balancing a raft of somewhat mixed economic news alongside the latest policy measures announced by the Bank of England, which have already begun to lower cost of mortgage finance.

“Against this backdrop, it is not altogether surprising that near term activity measures remain relatively flat. However the rebound in the key twelve month indicators in the July survey suggest that confidence remains more resilient than might have been anticipated.”

Jeremy Leaf, North London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, said: “On the ground we are finding that a sense of realism has returned to the market and that genuine sellers and buyers are negotiating hard to make deals happen.

“Clearly there are some buyers who feel it is just too uncertain at the moment but most seem determined to go ahead. In any event, prices are being underpinned by a continued shortage of property although we have noticed first-time buyers are still quite active and investors from abroad are showing more interest in the market.”

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Tags: Brexithouse prices
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