Nearly a third of Britons think that house prices will rise rather than fall in 2012, according to the latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence tracker.
29 per cent of Britons forecast that house prices across the UK will increase over the next 12 months, more than the 22 per cent that predict a price decline over the same period.
As a consequence, the headline House Price Outlook balance has moved into positive territory with an overall balance score of +7 percentage points (29 per cent minus 22 per cent). This represents a marked improvement compared with the negative reading of -2 (28 per cent expecting a rise minus 30 per cent expecting a fall) recorded in October’s survey.
However, the outlook for the housing market remains subdued. The majority think that any house price movement over the next twelve months will be relatively small with around two-thirds (65 per cent) expecting any movement to be between +5 per cent and -5 per cent.
Most regions expect increase in house prices but Londoners are the most optimistic
Eight of the 11 UK regions tracked recorded a positive headline House Price Outlook balance (ie, indicating that more people expect house prices to rise rather than fall). This contrasts sharply with October’s tracker when just three regions had a positive headline balance.
Londoners have the most optimistic outlook for the housing market with an overall net balance of +21, followed by the East Midlands (+18) and Yorkshire and Humber (+14). At the other end of the spectrum, the North East has the most negative outlook for house prices (-3).
Job worries and raising a deposit are the main hurdles to home buying
Over half of those questioned identified difficulties in raising a deposit (57 per cent) and concerns about job security (55 per cent) as the main obstacles to buying a property. Respondents also picked out household finances (33 per cent) and the general availability of mortgages (30 per cent) as major barriers to buying a property.
More think it’s a better time to buy than sell
Half (50 per cent) of those questioned think that it is currently a good time to buy, five times the proportion thinking that it is a good time to sell (10 per cent). Perceptions of the UK housing market as a better one for buyers than sellers partly reflects the dramatic improvement in home affordability over recent years. Recent research by Halifax revealed that mortgage payments for a new borrower in the second half of 2011 were at their lowest as a proportion of disposable earnings for 14 years.
Martin Ellis, housing economist at Halifax, commented: “The modest improvement in consumer confidence in the outlook for house prices reflects the resilience of the UK housing market over recent months in the face of a weak economic recovery and the deterioration in the outlook for both the UK and global economies.”
“Looking forward, we currently expect broad stability in house prices in 2012, although there remains much ambiguity around this given the considerable uncertainty regarding the prospects for the UK economy.”
